Base Rate Neglect: What It Is and How to Avoid It
Learn how base rate neglect can lead to big mistakes about likelihood, even with accurate tests and reliable evidence. Through engaging examples involving security threats, medical tests, and success stories, discover why low probabilities matter and how to reason more effectively about the significance of test results.
Topics
- accuracy rate
- application
- argument
- base rate
- base rate neglect
- bias
- cognitive bias
- conditional probability
- conditions
- confidence
- confirmation bias
- detecting plagiarism
- detection
- detection system
- disconfirming evidence
- event
- evidence
- eyewitness identification
- false negative rate
- false positive rate
- high school
- medical testing
- outcomes
- probability
- probability of an event
- reasoning
- scientific reasoning
- success stories
- threat assessment
- test accuracy