Independent Events and the Gambler's Fallacy
Have you heard of the gambler’s fallacy? It’s a common error that we make when we reason about probabilities—especially when we fail to appreciate what it means for two events to be independent. In this text, you’ll learn how to use simple visual tools to grasp the difference between dependent and independent events. You’ll then see how streaks of independent events can lead to the gambler’s fallacy and consider strategies for avoiding this error.
Topics
- gambler’s fallacy
- chance
- coin flips
- decrease probability
- dependent events
- dependent probabilities
- events
- fair coin
- fallacies
- high school
- improbable streaks
- increase probability
- independence
- independent events
- independent probabilities
- marble draws
- marbles
- outcomes
- possible outcomes
- probability
- probability of an event
- Product Rule
- random streaks
- reasoning
- resetting probabilities
- scientific reasoning
- sequence of events