Probability: How Can We Use Evidence to Reason about Chances?
This pathway will deepen your understanding of how evidence can help us to reason accurately about chances and uncertainty. Using visualizations and relatable examples from everyday life, you’ll explore foundational probability concepts, like independence, conditional probability, and base rates. By learning to identify and avoid common mistakes, such as the gambler’s fallacy and conjunction fallacy, you’ll enhance your ability to reason critically. Finally, you’ll practice applying these insights to realistic contexts, from assessing health risks to interpreting the reliability of test results, helping you to make better-informed decisions about probability.